How fast do things
change when you hit the tipping point? In 1898 the world’s first international
urban planning conference was held in New York to deal with the first major
city crisis: “The Great Horse Manure Crisis”.
In New York City, the
population of 100,000 horses produced 2.5 million pounds of horse manure per
day. In London the problem was even worse, with the Times of London writing “In
50 years, every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure.”
That same year, the
first horseless automobiles began hitting the streets.
Within 50 years not
only was there not nine feet of manure on the streets, but horses themselves
had been banned.
What happened to horses
is now happening to combustion engines.
Today Oxford announced
it would be the first English city to ban all petrol and diesel vehicles from
its “Zero-emission zone” city centre starting in 2020.
Today Paris also
announced it is banning all vehicles that were not electric from the city by
2030.
France has said it
would do the same for the entire country by 2040.
Britain will begin a country-wide
ban from 2040 and will have all electric cars by 2050.
India has set a target
of banning the sale of all petrol and electric vehicles by 2030.
And this week China has
announced it will be setting a timeline to also move to zero-emission vehicles.
Austria, Denmark,
Ireland, Japan, the Netherlands, Portugal, Korea and Spain have all set targets
for increasing electric car sales, and Norway is leading the way with 40% of
cars sold already electric or hybrid, and all cars and vans sold being zero-emission
by 2025.
The next twenty years
will see pollution and consumption of fossil fuels plummet, as a result of
entrepreneurs and inventors coming up with smarter technology, and then
progressive cities and governments following closely behind.
“We cannot solve our
problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” ~ Albert
Einstein
The moral of the story
- In times of change, focus at shifting mindset, not shifting manure.
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