Thought really hard on how mildly to caption this post. Had a few other ideas but this one resonated more in my faculties so please pardon my "un-journalistic" methods because of course I'm not one.
In a recent interview
the MD of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz), Roland S. Folger, said their competitors are no longer
other car companies but Tesla (obvious), Google, Apple, Amazon, etc.
Software will disrupt
most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a
software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in
the world
Airbnb is now the
biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any
properties.
Artificial
Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.
This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the US, young
lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice
(so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy
compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
So if you study law,
stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only
specialists will remain.
Watson already helps
nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now
has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.
In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In
2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the
complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will
call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to
your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven
distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never
own a car.
It will change the
cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former
parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now
have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that
will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a
million lives each year.
Most car companies
will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary
approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple,
Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
Many engineers from
Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies
will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become
100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will
change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further
away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars will
become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars
will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean:
Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now
see the burgeoning impact.
Last year, more solar
energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately
trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar
installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.
With cheap
electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only
needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have
scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much
clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced
this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the
"Tricorder" from Star Trek)
that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood
sample and you breath into it.
It then analyses 54
biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few
years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis,
nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.
3D printing: The
price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10
years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D
printing shoes.
Some spare airplane
parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a
printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used
to have in the past.
At the end of this
year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print
your perfect shoe at home.
In China, they
already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being
produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities:
If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future,
do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If it doesn't work
with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th
century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20
years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be
enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in
the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their
field instead of working all day on their fields.
Aeroponics will need
much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will
be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural
surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There
are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains
more protein than meat. It will be labelled as "alternative protein
source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app
called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by
your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where
it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.
Bitcoin may even
become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by
3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's
80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than
one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably
way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10
in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That
means, everyone has the same access to
world class education.
Every child can use
Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World
countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon
there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous
potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and
everywhere else can become fluent in English and that could happen within half
a year.